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Tuesday’s inflation report could send stocks for a wild ride, JPMorgan traders said Monday. Slated to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET, the consumer price index gauges inflation by tracking price changes within a broad basket of items. The January reading is expected to show a 6.2% year-over-year increase, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. If that consensus estimate is correct, JPMorgan’s sales and trading desk expects the S & P 500 to add between 1.5% and 2% in Tuesday’s session before seeing the rally fade. The desk is in alignment with the Dow Jones polled economists, most likely expecting CPI to show an increase of 6% and 6.3% in January from the same month a year prior. (The JPMorgan sales and trading desk is a different entity than its research team.) Here’s the desk’s full estimates for how the market could move in response to varying readings, with the likelihood that each case is correct: 5% probability — CPI above 6.5% — “This bearish outcome would align with the resurgent inflation hypothesis” — S & P 500 down 2.5% to 3% 25% probability — CPI between 6.4% and 6.5% — “The hawkish outcome here would not be as negative as if this occurred last year” — S & P 500 down 1.5% 65% probability — CPI between 6.0% and 6.3% — “This bullish outcome would likely pull yields lower, along with the USD, and boost risk assets” — S & P 500 up 1.5% to 2% before fading 5% probability — CPI below 6% — “Likely re-prices expectations for the Fed to complete two more rate hikes to just one more rate hike” — S & P 500 up between 2.5% and 3% S & P 500 options, meanwhile, have priced in a 2% move following the CPI release, according to the firm. That’s in line with how the market has moved in response to the data over the past year. The JPMorgan trading desk has made bold predictions in the past and at one point last year word of their expectations spread on Wall Street and moved the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 500 points ahead of November’s reading after the trading desk’s scenarios showed the S & P 500 would move at least 2% — with one of the most unlikely ones resulting in a potential swing of as much as 10% . The market is seeing similar trading action ahead of the latest print. The Dow jumped about 300 points Monday . The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each gained more than 1%. December’s tick-down of 0.1% month-over-month was the largest drop since 2020. It was welcomed by investors looking for signs that inflation was cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to pause or pivot on its interest rate hike campaign. However, Tuesday’s report still has the potential to deliver bad news for investors. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report
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